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Forecast for 2020-2025

Assumptions and consequences

1. The vast majority of people of any race, people, ethnic group or religion are of goodwill. they want to live in peace, they work hard for the family and most people show solidarity with other people.

2. The talents and intelligence are equally distributed among all races and ethnic groups. If there are differences in performance and development, this is due to historical, religious, political, economic and educational conditions.

Consequence: it follows from assumptions 1 and 2 that in every country and every continent the population has the capacity to create peace, well-being and prosperity.

3. Education determines whether a country has a future. In South Africa, almost 80 percent of 10-year-olds are practically illiterate and 60 percent of 11-year-olds cannot add or subtract whole numbers. The situation is even more dramatic in the rest of Africa and in countries of the Middle East.

4. In Africa and the Middle East there is a huge potential of talents that, especially among girls, has not yet been exploited.

Consequence: it will take at least three more generations for Africa and the Middle East to reach a decent level of prosperity, with a population that can meet its own needs. Given the low level of education of the population, it is unfortunately not sensible, from an economic point of view, to invest in these countries. In development cooperation, priority must be given to improving education, starting with primary schools.

5. Human behavior is determined biologically and rationally at the same time. The drives and the instinct for survival are biological forces that become uncontrollable in certain circumstances. That is why soldiers who behave reasonably as civilians, are capable of war crimes under extreme circumstances. An entire population can also be stimulated by these forces. "The human spirit is not well known when it is forgotten that fanaticism makes the people capable of anything" (Voltaire).

6. It looks as if we are facing major threats. The effects of climate change, the unsustainability of endless economic growth, indebtedness, religious and political radicalization, the internationally operating terrorist network, the uncontrollable immigration and other developments that are not yet visible will ignite biological forces.

7. The differences between rich and poor will lead to revolts in times of increasing tensions and food shortages. In France, the Yellow Vests are an omen of it. In South Africa, for example, 10 percent of the population owns 95 percent of all wealth. The same ratio applies to many countries, especially developing countries.

Consequence: we are going straight to a period of fanaticism, because developments will escalate and an accumulation of tensions is likely. Another sign on the wall (July 2019): people has never traveled so much by plane; 20 new airports are under construction in China. People don't care about the climate, despite the urgent warnings. It can't take that long before it escalates.

8. When tensions escalate, the population is divided into "we" and "them". Minorities or groups that distinguish themselves from the rest become the scapegoat. People fall back on those with whom they know themselves. Connectedness creates a sense of security. Unity is strength.

9. Nationalism appears to be becoming a global movement. Nationalist political parties are winning everywhere. This movement is caused by the people feeling that the forces must be combined to cope with visible threats.

Consequence: when it comes to a struggle for survival, the multicultural society will come to an end. Millions of immigrants are being chased away to the countries of origin.

10. In order to put an end to the violence, racial tensions, civil wars, terrorism and the greed of the possessing class, only an ethical movement can be a counterforce.

11. Judaism and then Christianity have brought the highest ethics into the world. The ethics of the West, which originated in Christianity and subsequently founded the humanism and democracy of the secular state, is a beacon of hope for humanity. This ethics is characterized by responsibility for the Other, regardless of its characteristics or origin, and by the awareness of personal guilt for one's own shortcomings.

12. The material and the sensible world is the domain of the struggle for self-interest. "Being is war" (Levinas). The spiritual world is the domain of ethics. "From the other side of Being, the appeal comes to be responsible." After all the misery that awaits us, this appeal will inspire the people again. In particular, a renewed Europe will once again become aware of its ethical responsibility.

13. With this appeal, the immigrants who have returned en masse from Europe to the countries of origin will achieve peace, well-being and prosperity in those countries. They will help their countrymen to develop their talents so that the enormous potential of those countries can flourish.

Consequence: humanity must be led back on the path of ethics. Europe will play a crucial and indispensable role in this, provided that Europe can retain its ethics. The latter means that Europe must be a confederation of national states, each with a population that shares a common history, culture, norms and values. This Europe will be an example to the whole world and inspire and support other people and ethnic groups to build a decent society in the countries of origin.

Russia and Israel are part of the European Confederation. As soon as peace, welfare and prosperity come into view in the Middle East, an alliance will be established between Europe and the Islamic countries. This is a new global power that will safeguard ethics in international relations.

What is above is in fact a repetition of the Tower of Babel and of the Flood. In Babel, all nations came together to form a unity; this led to chaos and everyone returned to the countries of origin. The Flood was a consequence of the irresponsible behavior of humanity. Noah was saved: he had a family and was a just man.

The above developments threaten to escalate in the short term. The flow of immigration has become uncontrollable, millions of illegal immigrants are unacceptable to the indigenous population, and protection against terrorist threats costs huge amount of money. For that reason, the police and the army must join forces and commit a coup. This is the only way to prevent fanaticism, a terrible civil war and a lot of misery.

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