opvoedingsproblemen - gedragsproblemen - jeugdcriminaliteit - orthopedagogiek - politiek voor de 21ste eeuw   

That another major war is coming in the foreseeable future is a certainty. Here are some arguments for this statement:

- the current economic model is not adapted to demographic developments in the 21st century

- the impact of climate change on agriculture in many parts of the world, whereby the food supply will be at risk (which would have been one of the causes of the civil war in Syria). Forest fires, floods, the great heat and a shortage of potable water make life there impossible

- many countries have sky-high, no longer repayable debts

- the middle class is declining in purchasing power

- the separation between rich and poor is constantly increasing

- the situation in most Muslim countries and in black Africa is hopeless (a BBC correspondent recently reported that most young people in Kinshasa do not go to school! In South Africa, 80% of ten-year-olds cannot read simple sentences)

- the politicians of the traditional parties are blind and dare not recognize that Islam undermines the foundations of Western civilization

- for the past 10,000 years, humanity has gone from one war to another

- The weapons are now highly technically perfected, the development of new weapons increases exponentially, e.g. biological warfare, drones and robots and other forms of artificial intelligence. The government can easily lose control of it. It is also possible that an act of war or military intervention with a limited and temporary purpose, completely runs out of control. It is not inconceivable that terrorist groups will have access to sophisticated weaponry.

- the mutual deterrence with nuclear weapons, which saved us from an all-destructive war during the Cold War, does not work if the opponents want to conduct a jihad: dying as a martyr is the highest merit for them. The presence of nuclear weapons in countries such as Pakistan is an unimaginably high risk.

- mass immigration leads to great tensions among the population and, unlike the US, the EU remains indecisive and looks for a " structural solution " that never comes.

Who are the strongest parties at the moment?

- The United States, because they have the largest and most powerful army, with a lot of experience

- Russia that also has a strong leader

- China: has an enormous army and a supreme leader

- Turkey: has a large army, is nationalistic and has a strong leader who dreams of a recovery from the Ottoman Empire

Who are the weakest parties?

- the European Union because it hardly has an army, there are no real leaders and the Union is a bureaucracy with great indecision

- the Arab countries

- Africa

What can we expect?

First, an event must be the wick in the powder keg. As long as this does not happen, there will be no war. Now we live quite comfortably here, at least most of us in the West. Therefore, there will be no major political shifts. The traditional parties will retain their power. So it can go well for some time, so that most people don't worry too much. Of course I hope it stays that way. This text is only meant to be prepared.

What exactly will happen is difficult to predict. Here is just a conceivable scenario. It is not about whether this scenario is realistic, but about whether we are prepared for the coming calamities and how we can prepare. It is also not about pessimism or optimism, because we largely determine the future ourselves. This is a risk analysis that can help us prepare well.

A possible scenario : Civil wars break out in several countries. Russia is making new attempts to expand its territory and is responding by military means to the expansion of NATO.

The United States does nothing, because they have nothing to lose or little to fear. Why would they take a risk for a European Union that refused to build a fully-fledged army?

Turkey is taking advantage of the opportunity to put order in the Middle East. The resources of the oil sheiks are confiscated for a large Marshall plan for the Middle East. Greater Europe is signing a deal with the new Ottoman Empire to occupy Africa, so that a start can be made to bring peace, well-being and prosperity for the population.

China takes a cautious approach and focuses on expanding its power base in Asia. Here too the United States does nothing.

There is a chance that the United States will use the chaos in the world to occupy part of Latin America to suppress both drug trafficking and mass immigration. Given the number of homicides in Latin America and the masses who want to escape the terror of gangs, we could say that the US has a sacred duty to intervene.

There is a certain chance that not many victims will fall in these wars. The war will probably also last briefly because the weapons are so effective and powerful and all kinds of different weapons (biological, cyberwar, nuclear, etc. ) with very different purposes will be used. Perhaps in the first instance we will not even realize that the war has already begun.

If some leaders, including French President, the coleric Macron or the unpredictable Donald Trump, will decide to combat the Russians, a manmade Apocalypse may occur.  If this answer is not given, the Russian and Turkish armies that come into action will hardly encounter any resistance because they are so powerful. Europe, the countries of the Middle East and Africa will suffer their fate.

Perhaps the most important conclusion is that we are doing too little or nothing in Europe to prepare ourselves for the challenges that, with great certainty, are facing us in this 21st century. Before the outbreak of World War II  countries like France and England took no preparatory action. The Blitzkrieg caught them by surprise.

The EU is the worst imaginable body to prepare for possible external aggression. A statesman does not get a chance in this construction. Every form of leadership is undermined by the technocrats.

I personally argue for a European Confederation of national states, because in the national state we can find the power and the solidarity to be strong. Strong national states can make good agreements for a common defense and a solidary economy.

My proposal: A Holy Alliance with Russia

How can we prevent all this misery ? Nothing is more dangerous than a cumulation of tensions in multiple areas. Then it is about using our mind so that we look for a solution in a mature way.

Worst case scenario 1 : to make things even clearer, I would like to outline some worst case scenarios. Again, I don't do this out of pessimism. It is a possibility where we can ask ourselves if and how we should prepare for it.

Suppose that Islamic terrorists are provided with nuclear weapons. This is not unlikely because Pakistan or Iran can supply the raw materials. Both countries have ties with terrorist groups (Al Quada and Hezbollah). These terrorists place atomic bombs in some European cities and let one explode. They also threaten to explode other and get Europe on his knees. What then?

It is unthinkable that Europe will bow to the demands of the terrorists. We will accept the large number of victims. The population of the major cities will be evacuated. What needs to happen to prevent a recurrence? You guessed it: we cannot take any risks. All Muslims and anyone with any connection to Islam must leave Europe immediately. A handful of resolute fanatics will determine the fate of millions of Muslims.

Worst case scenario 2 : in this second scenario, no acts of war are performed at all and no casualties occur. It is a metaphysical war, a jihad of spirits, in which the values ​​and traditions of the West die. The winners will not call this a worst case, but the overall victory.

As a result of dramatic developments, young people are coming to realize that Western civilization is ending or, given the events that will overwhelm us, will soon end in an Apocalypse. They see how nihilistic people are and how meaningless their lives have become. These young people find their salvation in Islam. Islam offers security. The Muslims bear witness to a firm belief and a deep conviction. The commandments they obey, in their outward appearance and in their behavior, appeal to the youth because they can confirm their search for identity here.

The people experience that Islam is indeed the religion of peace. Muslims no longer commit terrorist attacks, because violence is now unnecessary for the victory of Islam. No one needs to be forced to obey the Islamic commandments. There is no question of oppression, because there is a massive spontaneous conversion to Islam.

Gradually, everything reminiscent of Western civilization is destroyed or abolished. Churches are degraded or converted to mosques. In the museums, everything that represents human beings is smashed or burned at the stake. There are no more concerts. Literature and other art are considered superfluous. There are no more new scientific developments, because that is no longer necessary. Thanks to Allah and Islam, the world has become perfect.

Only in a distant abbey somewhere in Latin America is the Holy Grail of Christianity preserved. That's the only place it holds that: "Where two or three are gathered in my name, there am I with them" (Matthew 18:20 ü s).

Worst case scenario 3 : In the first days after the eruption of the Bolshaya Udina, a volcano on the Kamchatka peninsula in eastern Russia, it was hardly addressed in the newspapers and other media. Only when the ash cloud became larger and larger and the airspace above Alaska and Canada had to be closed, experts were asked for their opinion. Most of them predicted a short burst and after that this volcano would come to rest for centuries. No further measures were taken for the time being and human activity continued as usual. After a month, the people started to worry. The ash cloud that the Boshaya Udina spewed out grew and measurements showed that the black dust particles in the atmosphere, also over Europe, had reached an unprecedented density. All air traffic was stopped above the northern hemisphere.

The flame flared up when the President of the United States banned the export of food from one day to the next. Everyone started hoarding. There were fights for the supermarkets and small grocers. The shelves were empty in no time. To prevent worse, the army, together with the police, took over power in France. Other countries soon followed. The new rulers gave the order to make an inventory of food supplies as quickly as possible. It was feared that the harvests would fail in the coming years.

A civil war broke out in the United States. Given the huge amount of weapons that were distributed among the population, tens of thousands of people were killed. The Latinos flock fled to South America. The civil war intensified when it turned out that there was hardly any food enough for a third of the population. The blacks were virtually eradicated. All racist hatred that had accumulated over time exploded in this popular uprising.

Due to the increasing tensions between the population groups in Europe, military leadership took drastic measures. The situation became more and more dire. The temperature dropped from September to deep below freezing. The sun was no longer visible. The sky turned dark gray. It was clear to everyone that a huge famine was imminent and it could last for many years. The military leadership decided to initiate a mass deportation. Only those who had ancestors who lived in Europe in the year 1900 were allowed to stay in Europe. There were two roads for the deportation. The first walked through Turkey and Syria to Egypt and from there to the African interior and to Asia. The second ran through a ferry in the Strait of Gibraltar. Millions traveled through these roads to the lands of their ancestors. An uncertain future also awaited them.

My proposal: A Holy Alliance with Russia

 EUROPE AND ISLAM CAN SAVE THE WORLD

Full text here: The end of multicultural societies or here: academie.edu

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